Bayes’ Theorem

Bayes’ Theorem

What is it and what is it good for?
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Bayes’ Theorem tells us how to rationally assess the probability of a certain statement of interest being true, given some evidence. Insofar as science consists in creating hypotheses, collecting evidence for and against them, and updating our credence in these hypotheses in the face of the collected evidence, Bayes’ Theorem formalizes the very process of doing science.

Expected Utility

Expected Utility

What is it and why should I maximize it?
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It’s in the interest of agents to achieve their own goals as well as possible. When we implement this in our behavior, we are acting rationally. But what does this mean in an applied setting, acting so as to best achieve our goals?

Basic Decision Theory

Basic Decision Theory

How to get better at making decisions
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Each day every one of us faces decision problems. Many of these decision problems are not solved consciously – we simply choose an option intuitively, without thinking much about it. But we better not rely on this approach when it comes to high-stakes decisions.

Theism and Expert Knowledge

Theism and Expert Knowledge

70% theists among philosophers of religion: me worry?
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Among philosophers specialized on philosophy of religion only 19.1% accept or lean toward atheism while 72.3% accept or lean toward theism. What should we make of this?

Cognitive Biases and Irrationality

Cognitive Biases and Irrationality

Stone age brains in a silicon age
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The human brain is a liar that relentlessly sabotages our success. For all its complex brilliance, the brain stumbles into a number of cognitive traps with astonishing regularity. The more often it does so, the less often we are able to achieve what we truly want.

Anti-Epistemology

Anti-Epistemology

The dark side of belief-revision
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The idea of Anti-Epistemology revolves around three basic elements: the distinction between cherished beliefs and ordinary beliefs, the claim that beliefs are not isolated but stand in confirmation and disconfirmation relations to each other, and the idea that there are bad ways of resolving tension between beliefs…