## Bayes’ Theorem

What is it and what is it good for?

Bayesâ€™ Theorem tells us how to rationally assess the probability of a certain statement of interest being true, given some evidence. Insofar as science consists in creating hypotheses, collecting evidence for and against them, and updating our credence in these hypotheses in the face of the collected evidence, Bayesâ€™ Theorem formalizes the very process of doing science.